Treasury Yields Fluctuate

Published October 3, 2025

U.S. Treasury yields stayed steady early in the week despite a weaker-than-expected consumer confidence report. Yields trended lower later in the week as investors digested an unexpected decline in private payrolls and the impact of the federal government shutdown.

On Tuesday, the Conference Board reported that its Consumer Confidence Index decreased 3.6 points to 94.2 in September. This marked a decline from August’s reading of 97.8 and came in below economists’ forecast of 96.0. The decline reflected concerns over inflation, tariffs and employment uncertainty, which continue to weigh on consumer sentiment.

“Consumer confidence weakened in September, declining to the lowest level since April 2025,” said senior economist of global indicators at the Conference Board, Stephanie Guichard. “Consumers’ assessment of business conditions was much less positive than in recent months, while their appraisal of current job availability fell for the ninth straight month to reach a new multiyear low.”

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield opened the week of September 29 at 4.18% and traded as low as 4.09% on Wednesday. The 30-year Treasury bond opened the week at 4.76% and traded as low as 4.67% on Wednesday.

On Wednesday, ADP reported that private sector jobs decreased in September, indicating a weakening labor market. The payroll processing company detailed that private sector businesses lost 32,000 jobs in September, far below Wall Street’s expectations of an increase of 45,000 jobs. ADP also revised the payroll figures for August, indicating a loss of 3,000 jobs, which is considerably less than the initially reported increase of 54,000 jobs.

"We found that once we benchmarked that data, it actually shows a September slowdown that has been consistent with what we have been reporting all year," said chief economist at ADP, Dr. Nela Richardson. "In fact, though the numbers changed, the story and the narrative and the trend remain the same: Hiring momentum has slowed from the beginning of the year through September."

The 10-year Treasury note yield finished the week of 9/29 at 4.12%, while the 30-year Treasury note yield finished the week at 4.71%.